Democrats’ Ad Plans Show Party Going on Offense

The House Majority PAC outlined its plans Thursday to spend substantially in media markets from Miami to Phoenix to Philadelphia, where the most competitive races will determine whether President Trump keeps his Republican majority. Democrats are attempting to seize upon Trump’s slumping job approval ratings and public dissatisfaction over inflation and the economy.

The ad spending plan offers a road map to Democrats’ strategy for retaking the House and their top targets six months before the midterms—along with spending plans in areas that typically lean Republican. The super PAC isn’t legally allowed to coordinate with the House Democrats’ campaign arm, but both entities are expected to focus on roughly three dozen districts with the aim of expanding the map in the event that voters provide a sweeping rebuke of GOP lawmakers.

“With Trump’s numbers down wildly across the board, in particularly on the economy and cost of living, it has given us an opportunity to go deeper and communicate with voters that traditionally voted Republican or haven’t voted at all, that are willing to take a chance on Democrats,” said Mike Smith, president of House Majority PAC.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC tied to House Republican leadership, hasn’t yet specified its advertising targets.

Trump and congressional Republicans are trying to maintain their narrow House majority, with the current balance at 217 Republicans and 212 Democrats, and one GOP-aligned independent.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates 16 seats as tossups, with 13 held by Republicans and three by Democrats, indicating they could break either way. Another 16 seats are viewed as competitive, with 12 seats leaning in the direction of Democrats and four leaning toward Republicans.

Most of the ad reservations—nearly 80%—are focused on GOP-held seats, reflecting a more optimistic outlook from the committee, which reserved about half of its advertising in 2024 to protect Democratic-aligned seats. The television and digital reservations in 68 media markets represent a nearly 50% increase in the group’s 2024 reservations of $186 million.

Some of this year’s reservations include:

Nearly $20 million in Florida, the first time the PAC has reserved advertising in the state since the 2020 election cycle. It covers about $9 million in the Miami market to target GOP Reps. Maria Elvira Salazar and Carlos Gimenez; $6.6 million in the Tampa area for races against GOP Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Laurel Lee; and $3.9 million in the Orlando area to focus on embattled Republican Rep. Cory Mills, who has faced calls for expulsion from the House.Nearly $13 million in the Philadelphia area, which includes a suburban seat held by Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who represents a rare GOP-held district won by Kamala Harris in 2024. The PAC also has reserved more than $3 million apiece in Harrisburg and Wilkes-Barre, Pa., where Democrats hope to defeat GOP Reps. Scott Perry and Rob Bresnahan, respectively.Roughly $13 million in Harlingen, Texas, a media market that covers South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley and touches three competitive House races.Nearly $11 million across Iowa, focused on Republican Reps. Zach Nunn, who represents a Des Moines-area district, and Mariannette Miller-Meeks in eastern Iowa.More than $7.6 million in the Phoenix media market, which includes an open race for a suburban district held by GOP Rep. David Schweikert, who is running for governor, and a northeastern Arizona seat held by Rep. Eli Crane, a Republican.More than $7 million in the Denver area, a nod to Democrats’ hopes of unseating Rep. Gabe Evans, a Republican freshman who narrowly won election in 2024 in the city’s northern suburbs.

The ad reservations also show where Democrats intend to play defense. The committee has reserved more than $8 million in three Maine media markets in support of an open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, one of the biggest swing districts in the nation. The committee is also earmarking another $8 million in advertising around a district held by Rep. Don Davis, a North Carolina Democrat.

Super PACs typically reserve advertising early in the campaign cycle to lock in the lowest rates. The reservations don’t include the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area, which Smith said would be made later because the rates in the nation’s most expensive media market don’t typically change.

Write to Ken Thomas at ken.thomas@wsj.com