Nigeria’s determination to achieve single digit inflation rate is fully on course despite sudden rise in March figures due to ongoing Middle East crisis and other related headwinds. Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Olayemi Cardoso said Nigeria will achieve single digit inflation rate despite marginal rise in inflation rate to 15.38 per cent in March from 15.06 per cent in February.
The economy’s growth prospects and resilience to global shocks in the face of headwinds are positive results gained from the CBN-led financial sectors reforms and quest for stronger economy.
Globally, inflation has been acknowledged as the biggest enemy of growth, the biggest enemy of the common man.
For Nigeria, over two-years economic reforms have boldened the economy, preparing it withstand shocks and thrive in the face of diverse headwinds.
Nigeria is today well positioned to with stand external shocks. There exists, strong recognition and recommendations that Nigeria’s economic reforms have gained domestic and global investors’ confidence.
Speaking during the International monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank Spring Meetings in US, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said Nigeria’s experience indicates that spillover effects from the Middle East crisis which led to marginal rise in inflation rate in March has been relatively contained.
He said the ability of the economy to contained the economic headwinds from the crisis reflects positive reform outcomes, including exchange rate stability, stronger reserve buffers and an enhanced monetary policy framework.
Cardoso said, “We are not relenting on continuing to build resilience and also to stay the course with respect to something we have constantly been talking about, and that is bringing down inflation to single digits. In spite of all that is going on, we will stay that course.”
Already, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) led by the Statistician-General of the Federation and NBS CEO, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, says Nigeria’s headline inflation rate has increased to 15.38 percent in March 2026 up from the 15.06 percent in February.
The increase is the first in 12 months since the inflation rate started declining in April 2025. “The Headline inflation rate rose to 15.38 per cent, up from 15.06 per cent in February 2026 and stood 27.35 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (March 2025),” NBS said.
The bureau said the headline inflation rate showed an increase of 0.32 percent compared to the February 2026 headline inflation rate.
“However, on a month-on-month basis, the Headline inflation rate in March 2026 was 4.18 per cent which was 2.17 per cent higher than the rate recorded in February 2026 (2.01 per cent),” NBS said.
President Bola Tinubu has also directed the economic managers to institute policies that will reduce the impact of the Middle East crisis on the masses.
CBN’s Inflation Targeting Measures
The CBN says structural reforms are beginning to filter through to the broader economy, helping to stabilise the naira and ease lending rates as inflation continues to moderate.
For the apex bank, the monetary policy actions reflect a deliberate strategy to restore macroeconomic stability after years of fiscal and external pressures.
These developments reflect the commitment and focus of the bank’s leadership in restoring stability to the financial system, lowering lending rates are emerging as one of the tangible outcomes of the CBN’s policy trajectory.
The CBN said alignment of fiscal and monetary policies is indispensable at a time when technological innovation and digital finance are rapidly transforming the financial landscape.
The CBN under Cardoso is cultivating multiple FX sources to increase dollar inflows, boost dollar access to manufacturers and retail end users.
From moves to improve diaspora remittances through new product development, the granting licenses to new International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), implementing a willing buyer-willing seller FX model, and enabling timely access to naira liquidity for IMTOs, the apex bank has simplified dollar-inflow channels for authorized dealers and other players in the value chain.
The move has led to substantial accretion to the gross FX reserves and supported the stability of the naira.
Given that FX inflows to the economy are strategic in achieving monetary and fiscal policy stability, the CBN under Cardoso puts in a lot of efforts in attracting more inflows into the economy.
Diaspora remittances to Nigeria, estimated at $23bn annually remain a reliable source of forex to the domestic economy. There are also other sources and policies that are being explored by the apex bank to keep dollar inflows coming.
Cardoso said Nigeria makes roughly $600m monthly from diaspora remittances inflows to the economy.
He said recent gains, including lower inflation, FX market stability and stronger reserves, have boosted investor confidence and capital flows.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) applauded Nigeria’s economic policies, saying the domestic reforms have brought visible results.
IMF Director, African Department, Abebe Selassie, disclosed this during the presentation of the Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, at the Annual meetings in Washington DC.
He said the effects of sound domestic policy choices instituted by the Nigeria fiscal and monetary authorities were increasingly visible.
Selassie disclosed that macroeconomic reforms and stabilization efforts, including strengthening of fiscal positions, created conditions for stronger growth and lower inflation.
He said that exchange rate realignments after foreign exchange market reforms, reductions in fuel subsidies, are some of the visible policies, and more recently, Nigeria began addressing long-standing macroeconomic imbalances, laying the foundations for growth.
He said, “Countries such as and Nigeria have reaped the benefits of macroeconomic reforms, exchange rate realignments, subsidy reduction and strength in monetary policy frameworks. In short 2025 was a year of hard- won stabilisation gains, and policymakers across the region deserve credit for achieving them”.
Selassie said the war in the Middle East is a major new external shock, oil, gas and fertilizer prices have surged.
“Shipping costs have risen. Trade with Gulf partners has been disrupted. Tourism and emphasis are being squeezed. Financial conditions have heightened, particularly for fuel importing countries,” he said.
Selassie explained that the policy choices that are being made in the region at present, will continue to determine the continent’s economic future.
He said the IMF stands ready to support the countries in the region with financing policy development. He said that what is important was not whether Nigeria borrows abroad or domestically, but its ability to keep the level of debt manageable relative to debt service capacity.
He advised Nigeria to conduct liability management operations to enable it ascertain how it intends to borrow for optimal benefits.
Selassie said that Sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 reaping the benefits of hard-won stabilization gains after a strong 2025.
“Economic activity accelerated broadly across country groups, with regional growth estimated at about 4.5 per cent —the fastest in a decade—reflecting favorable external factors and good policies, particularly in several large economies. Inflation moderated through the end of 2025, because of lower global food and oil prices, easing exchange rate pressures, and appropriately tight monetary stances in many countries,” he said.
“Fiscal positions improved, supported by stronger growth and favorable exchange rate developments. But the war in the Middle East has clouded the outlook. Oil, gas, and fertilizer prices, together with shipping costs, have risen sharply. Furthermore, the shock has disrupted the trade with Gulf partners, reduced tourist arrivals, and is likely to dent remittances to some countries,” he said.
Continuing, he said risk appetite has decreased, negatively affecting financing conditions, while buffers in many countries are limited. “Regional growth is expected to reach 4.3 percent in 2026, 0.3 percentage point lower than our prewar forecast, with significant heterogeneity across countries. Oil-importing, non-resource-rich countries face a deterioration in trade balance and higher cost of living, while oil exporters will benefit from stronger export revenues but remain exposed to volatility and procyclical policy risks,” he said.
Median inflation is projected to pick up to 5.0 per cent by the end of 2026 from 3.4 per cent at the end of 2025. Poverty, food insecurity, and other social indicators, already weakened by the pandemic, face renewed headwinds from declining foreign aid and rising food prices.
The IMF estimates that a 20 percent increase in international food prices can push more than 20 million people into moderate or severe food insecurity across the region.
World Bank Group Chief Economist for the Africa Region, Andrew Dabalen, said well-designed industrial policies can help unlock productivity gains and job creation, but only if they are grounded in a realistic understanding of country opportunities and constraints and used sparingly.
These policies should be supported by strong implementation capacity, and embedded in broader ecosystems that include reliable infrastructure, skilled labor, access to finance, and regional market integration.