The uncertain future of the US-Iran ceasefire is raising alarm across global energy markets, as the risk of renewed attacks threatens already battered oil and gas infrastructure across the Middle East.
After weeks of war that have crippled key facilities and disrupted one of the world’s most vital energy corridors, analysts warn that even if fighting stops now, a full recovery could take years and cost tens of billions of dollars.
Since the conflict began in late February, more than 150 attacks have hit energy-related sites across the region, including nuclear facilities, according to data from the American conflict monitor Acled.
Billions of dollars needed for recovery
At least 44 oil and gas facilities — including depots, refineries and extraction fields — have suffered damage, along with around a dozen transport and export sites.
Energy consultancy Rystad Energy estimates total repair costs could range between $34 billion and $58 billion, with the most severe scenario putting oil and gas infrastructure repairs alone at around $50 billion.
“If the ceasefire is not extended, the long-term consequences of the war will be more serious,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, an analyst at Global Risk Management.
He warned that liquefied natural gas (LNG), diesel and jet fuel are especially vulnerable to supply shortages if attacks resume.
Strait of Hormuz holds the key
The biggest factor in restoring normal energy flows remains the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which about 20 percent of global oil and LNG supplies passed before the war.
But even if the strait fully reopens, analysts say supply will not bounce back overnight.
“It could take months, or even longer,” said Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank, pointing to displaced tankers, broken supply chains and overflowing storage tanks across Gulf producers.