Trump’s dramatic U‑turn on Strait of Hormuz: From ‘will open itself’ to acknowledging Iran’s control
US President Donald Trump has shifted from issuing sharp ultimatums to adopting a more measured tone on the Strait of Hormuz. This change is driven largely by the realities on the ground, where Iran continues to exert significant control over one of the world’s most critical energy routes.
In the early weeks of the conflict, Trump repeatedly warned Iran against disrupting shipping, threatening a forceful military response if oil flows were blocked. He even suggested the strait would eventually “open itself.”
However, recent remarks indicate a shift. As reported by Yahoo Finance, Trump has acknowledged that Iran is already influencing traffic and even experimenting with charging transit fees. “They shouldn’t be able to, but they’re doing it a little bit,” he said.
He also pointed to limited cooperation during talks, noting that Iran allowed a small number of oil tankers to pass.
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Iran’s control over shipping is real
Despite US pressure, Iran has managed to significantly restrict movement through the strait. Before the conflict, more than 100 ships passed daily. Now, traffic has dropped sharply, with only a handful of vessels crossing.
Maritime data shows that many ships are avoiding the route altogether, while others are allowed through selectively. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has even claimed “complete control” over the waterway, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies.
Shipping firms remain wary, with data showing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped by as much as 90-95% since early March, according to analytics firm Kpler and shipping journal Lloyd’s List, as attacks, mines and security threats deter most commercial vessels.
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Why the US can’t easily fix the problem
According to CNN, US officials privately admit that reopening the strait is far more complicated than expected.
“One of the core conundrums of this conflict is the Iranians have real leverage… and there’s not an obvious fix,” an intelligence official said.
Even after US and Israeli strikes targeting Iranian capabilities, Tehran retains multiple ways to disrupt shipping, ranging from mines and missiles to small boats and drones. These low-cost, hard-to-detect tactics make it difficult to guarantee safe passage.
Geography also plays a role. Stretching nearly 100 miles, the strait offers Iran numerous points along its coastline to launch attacks or threaten vessels.
Oil prices have surged above per barrel, with some forecasts warning they could climb much higher if the crisis persists. The uncertainty has also pushed up shipping and insurance costs, further tightening supply.
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While the US continues efforts to counter Iran’s capabilities, officials acknowledge that restoring normal shipping depends partly on negotiations and de-escalation.
For now, Iran’s ability to choke or control the Strait of Hormuz has given it significant leverage, forcing Washington to recalibrate its approach.