The federal government has released the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO), with a warning that flood might hit Lagos, Bayelsa, Delta, Adamawa, Kebbi and some 28 other states following the commencement of the rainy season.
Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Engr Joseph Utsev, said this Wednesday during the AFO public presentation at the Presidential Banquet Hall Abuja.
The event was organised by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NiHSA), with the theme ‘Smart Water Resources Management: Moving from Oil to Water-Based Economy’.
In attendance were Minister of Environment, Balarabe Lawal representing President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Speaker of the House of Representatives Tajudeen Abbas, representatives from Federal Ministries namely; Water Resources and Sanitation; Livestock Development, Environment and Women Affairs.
The rest are state governments, Service Chiefs, development partners and the media.
Addressing the gathering, the minister said “early information saves lives, livelihoods, protects infrastructure, and reduces economic losses.”
He said the ministry was in strong collaboration with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) to ensure better integration of weather and water information, noting that the agency was critical for delivering reliable forecasts that support farmers, disaster managers, urban planners, and other key sectors of the economy.
According to him, the AFO is not just a scientific report, but a call to action by all in terms of preparation ahead of the flood season, as early information saves lives, livelihoods, protects infrastructure, and reduces economic losses.
Utsev, however, noted that forecasts alone were not enough if the information does not translate into action at the community level, an area, he said his ministry was working on alongside other relevant government agencies to mitigate the impacts of flooding.
…On areas at risk
The minister listed the states and the level of the flood risk.
Utsev said: “The 2026 flood forecast presented today provides us with the following general highlights: High Flood Risk: 14,118 communities in 266 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in 33 States and FCT fall within the high flood risk areas.
“The states are: Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara and the FCT.
“Moderate Flood Risk: 15,597 Communities in 405 LGAs, 35 states except Ekiti State, will experience moderate flood risk.
“Low Flood Risk: Incidences of minimal flood is expected in 923 communities in 77 LGAs in 24 States. The States are Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Sokoto, Taraba and Zamfara.
“Flash and Urban Flooding: Flash and urban flooding are projected in major cities in the country due to high rainfall intensities, low attention to management of water facilities including drainage systems, waterways and lack of flood resilience structures. Cities such as Abakaliki, Abeokuta, Abuja, Asaba, Benin City, Birnin–Kebbi, Calabar, Ibadan, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Makurdi, Nguru, Onitsha, Oshogbo, Port Harcourt, Sokoto, Warri and Yola, among others are to experience these categories of flood incidence.
“Coastal and Riverine Flooding: Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers and Ondo are to experience coastal flooding due to rise in sea level and tidal surge and this would impact on fishing, wildlife habitation and river navigation.”
“As we transition toward a water-based economy, we must recognize that water security is national security. Effective water governance will play a critical role in ensuring food security, supporting economic diversification, and improving the overall well-being of our citizens,” the minister added.
On the way out, the minister said: “I therefore call on state governments, local authorities, disaster management agencies, farmers, and community leaders to carefully study the findings and advisories contained in this document and take the necessary steps to prepare for the coming flood season.
“Furthermore, we are encouraging state governments to integrate flood risk considerations into land-use planning, urban development, and infrastructure design.
“Floodplains must be properly managed, drainage systems must be improved, and communities must be empowered to adapt to changing climate conditions.
“Preparedness remains the most effective strategy for reducing flood risks. When we plan ahead, we protect lives, safeguard infrastructure, and preserve economic gains. Let us commit to building a safer, more resilient and more water-secure nation.”
…NiHSA boss speaks
Also speaking, Director General/Chief Executive Officer, NiHSA, Umar Ibrahim Mohammed, said the 2026 AFO aligns with the Renewed Hope Agenda’s plan on economic diversification, infrastructure development, climate resilience, food security and sustainable water management.
“The AFO has evolved into an important national planning instrument that provides early scientific prediction of flood risks in the country, evidence-based guide for decision-makers and platform for emergency coordination among stakeholders.
“In producing this year’s forecast, the Agency undertook a comprehensive and data-driven process to provide tailored information for high-risk flood zones and flash floods in urban cities and towns.
“Building on the success achieved through AFO publications, we have upgraded from reporting flood forecast to Flood Risk Intelligence Architecture and from the traditional modelling to Hybrid AI-Integrated Modelling system to improve forecast reliability, reduce false alarms and improve the lead time accuracy.
“Not these alone, the modelling for the 2026 forecast have been conducted in-house. This marks a strategic shift toward enhancing capacity building, manpower development and institutional resilience,” Mohammed said.
The agency’s Flood Dashboard, he said, had been upgraded to full-scale Decision-Support Geo-Intelligence System that enable real-time visualisation and impact-based flood scenarios.
“The Dashboard is integrated with a dedicated Flood Mobile App to enhance accessibility and dissemination of flood information and alerts. We have the team of NiHSA’s flood marshals at back-end who are on hand to provide assistance and respond to queries,” Mohammed added.
Also in a goodwill message, Director General/Chief Executive Officer, NiMET, Prof Charles Anosike, lamented the devastating effects of flooding Nigeria and other African countries experienced.
He said technology had made it easier via predictions, to mitigate the impacts, and said NiHSA has done well with the presentation of AFO to protect the nation.